Source: U.S. Geological Survey
Why this market is moving now
- China tightened rare earth export controls in April 2025 and suspended a wider October 2025 expansion for one year in November.
- The Pentagon price floor of $110 per kilogram runs 10 years and is meant to support US magnet output.
- US magnet plans now include MP Materials, Vulcan Elements and USA Rare Earth, each with a 2026-2028 ramp.
Key figures
Each figure names the source it came from. Open the source list below to read the quoted line.
| Figure | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| The US produced an estimated 51,000 metric tons of rare earth oxide in mineral concentrates in 2025, valued at $240 million. | 51,000 metric tons REO | 2025 | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Net import reliance for US rare earth compounds and metals was an estimated 67% in 2025, against 53% in 2024. | 67 % | 2025 | U.S. Geological Survey |
| US imports of rare earth compounds and metals rose 169% in 2025, yet their estimated value fell to $165 million from $168 million. | 169 % increase in volume | 2025 | U.S. Geological Survey |
| China supplied 71% of US rare earth compound and metal imports over 2021-24, followed by Malaysia at 13%. | 71 % | 2024 | U.S. Geological Survey |
| The average NdPr oxide price was an estimated $69 per kilogram in 2025, against $55 in 2024 and $124 in 2022. | 69 USD per kg | 2025 | U.S. Geological Survey |
| In April 2025 China tightened export controls on samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium and yttrium; it suspended its October 2025 expansion for one year in November. | 7 elements added in April 2025 | 2025 | U.S. Geological Survey |
| The US Department of Defense agreed a 10-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for MP Materials' NdPr products. | 110 USD per kg | 2025 | MP Materials |
| The Department of Defense agreed to buy $400 million of MP Materials' convertible preferred stock in July 2025. | 400 million USD | 2025 | MP Materials |
| With its planned 10X facility, MP Materials expects total US magnet capacity of an estimated 10,000 metric tons, with commissioning expected to begin in 2028. | 10,000 metric tons of magnets | 2028 | MP Materials |
| MP Materials produced 840 metric tons of NdPr in the second quarter of 2026, up 41% on a year earlier. | 840 metric tons NdPr | 2026 | MP Materials |
| Vulcan Elements plans a 10,000-tonne US magnet facility financed by a $620 million Department of War loan, $50 million of CHIPS incentives and $550 million of private capital. | 620 million USD loan | 2025 | Vulcan Elements |
| USA Rare Earth expects its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet plant to reach 600 metric tons a year by end-2026 and 1,200 by Q1 2027. | 600 metric tons per year | 2026 | USA Rare Earth |
Sources and method
The figures on this page come from the public sources listed below. Read how we work.
- U.S. Geological Survey: Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Rare Earths (2026-02)
Quoted lines
- Figure 1
An estimated 51,000 tons of REO in mineral concentrates was produced and was valued at $240 million.
- Figure 2
Compounds and metals >95 >95 >90 53 67
- Figure 3
U.S. imports of rare-earth compounds and metals increased by 169% in 2025
- Figure 4
Rare-earth compounds and metals: China, 71%; Malaysia, 13%; Japan, 5%; Estonia, 5%; and other, 6%.
- Figure 5
Neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, 99% minimum 92 124 75 55 69
- Figure 6
In April 2025, China tightened its export controls on rare-earth elements ... samarium, gadolinium, terbium, dysprosium, lutetium, scandium, and yttrium.
- Figure 1
- MP Materials: MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K) (2025-07-10)
Quoted lines
- Figure 7
DoD has entered into a 10-year agreement establishing a price floor commitment of $110 per kilogram for MP Materials' NdPr products stockpiled or sold
- Figure 8
DoD agreed to purchase $400 million of a newly-created series of the Company's preferred stock convertible into shares of the Company's common stock
- Figure 9
expected to begin commissioning in 2028, MP Materials' total U.S. rare earth magnet manufacturing capacity will reach an estimated 10,000 metric tons.
- Figure 7
- MP Materials: MP Materials Reports Second Quarter 2026 Results (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K) (2026-08-06)
Quoted lines
- Figure 10
NdPr production of 840 metric tons, a 41% increase year over year
- Figure 10
- Vulcan Elements: Vulcan Elements announces $1.4 billion partnership with the United States Government and ReElement Technologies (2025-11-03)
Quoted lines
- Figure 11
will be financed by a $620 million Direct Loan from the Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital
- Figure 11
- USA Rare Earth: USA Rare Earth Reports First Quarter 2026 Financial Results (Exhibit 99.1 to Form 8-K) (2026-05-13)
Quoted lines
- Figure 12
Phase 1a is expected to ramp to a run rate capacity of 600 metric tons per year (MTPA) by the end of Q4 2026.
- Figure 12
Companies to watch
MP Materials
Mines Mountain Pass, California; produced 840 metric tons of NdPr in Q2 2026 and has a Pentagon price floor.
Vulcan Elements
Plans a 10,000-tonne magnet facility with a $620 million Department of War loan.
USA Rare Earth
Commissioned Phase 1a of its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet line in March 2026.
ReElement Technologies
Recycling and refining partner to Vulcan, backed by an $80 million Department of War loan; source: Vulcan release, https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/vulcan-elements-forges-1-4-billion-partnership-with-the-united-states-government-and-reelement-technologies-to-expand-100-vertically-integrated-domestic-magnet-supply-chain-302602878.html.
What the full report covers
- 01Executive summary
The answer in one page: size, direction and what moves it - 02Market definition and scope
What is in and out of the United States market - 03Market size, 2021 to 2025
Historical series and growth rates - 04Outlook to 2031
Base, low and high scenarios with stated assumptions - 05Rules, policy and deadlines
Regulation and programmes that change demand - 06Drivers and barriers
What accelerates or slows adoption, by customer segment - 07Prices, costs and margins
Unit economics where public data allows - 08Competitive landscape
8 to 12 company profiles with recent moves - 09Opportunities and risks
For new entrants, suppliers and investors - 10Method and sources
Every assumption and source, listed
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Frequently asked questions
How much rare earth does the US produce?
The USGS estimates the US produced 51,000 metric tons of rare earth oxide in mineral concentrates in 2025, valued at $240 million. Most came from Mountain Pass, California.
How dependent is the US on China for rare earths?
China supplied 71% of US rare earth compound and metal imports over 2021-24. Net import reliance for compounds and metals was an estimated 67% in 2025, per the USGS.
What is the MP Materials price floor?
The Department of Defense agreed a 10-year price floor of $110 per kilogram for MP Materials' NdPr products, according to MP's July 2025 filing.
How much magnet capacity is the US building?
MP Materials expects total US magnet capacity of an estimated 10,000 metric tons once its 10X facility starts commissioning in 2028. Vulcan Elements also plans 10,000 tonnes.
What did China do to rare earth exports?
China tightened controls on seven heavy rare earth elements in April 2025. In November 2025 it suspended a wider October expansion for one year, the USGS reports.
What does NdPr oxide cost?
The USGS puts the average NdPr oxide price at an estimated $69 per kilogram in 2025, up from $55 in 2024.
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