Postal goods volumes to the United States fell 70% in the month its $800 exemption ended in 2025, and postal tonnage into the EU fell 31% in July 2026 under a new 3 EUR duty. The typical postal corridor between countries shrank 10% on average.
Why this market is moving now
- The EU ended its 150 EUR duty-free threshold in July 2026 with a 3 EUR charge per item, and the UK is expected to end its 135 GBP threshold.
- More than 40 countries stopped sending postal goods to the US within weeks of the August 2025 change.
- Slow, uncoordinated policy decisions could cost the postal network 411 billion USD over 2026 to 2030.
Key figures
Global figures for this market, with the year each one describes. Use Cite to copy a reference to this page.
| Figure | Value | Year | Cite |
|---|---|---|---|
| The typical postal corridor between two countries shrank by 10% on average in the latest year measured, as trade rules changed. | 10 % average decline | 2025 | |
| International postal goods volumes to the United States fell 70% in the month its duty exemption ended in August 2025, and more than 40 countries stopped sending goods within weeks. | 70 % fall in volumes | 2025 | |
| One year after the US change, 30 of the postal routes that had stopped sending goods to the United States had reopened. | 30 postal corridors reopened | 2026 | |
| Aggregate postal tonnage into the EU fell 31% in July 2026, the month the EU began charging a 3 EUR duty on each inbound item. | 31 % fall in tonnage | 2026 | |
| Postal revenues worldwide fell for a third year, from 606 billion USD in 2021 to 563.4 billion USD in 2024, in inflation-adjusted purchasing power terms. | 563.4 USD billion (PPP) | 2024 | |
| Slow, uncoordinated policy decisions could cost the world postal network 411 billion USD in total over 2026 to 2030. | 411 USD billion (2026 to 2030, cumulative) | 2030 | |
| The United States ended duty-free entry for parcels worth $800 or less, first for China and Hong Kong on 2 May 2025 and then for all parcels from 29 August 2025. | 800 USD former duty-free threshold | 2025 | |
| The EU planned to remove its 150 EUR duty-free threshold in July 2026 and charge 3 EUR per parcel, and the UK is expected to end its 135 GBP threshold. | 150 EUR former duty-free threshold | 2026 | |
| eBay had 135 million active buyers and 2.5 billion live listings across more than 190 markets at the end of 2025. | 135 million active buyers | 2025 |
Calculated figures (shares, changes and prices per kilogram) are plain arithmetic on the reported values. Read how we work.
Companies to watch
eBay
Online marketplace with 135 million active buyers in more than 190 markets; it calls cross-border trade an important source of revenue.
What the full report covers
- 01Executive summary
The answer in one page: size, direction and what moves it - 02Market definition and scope
What is in and out of the global market - 03Global market size, 2021 to 2025
Historical series and growth rates - 04Countries and regions
Demand, supply and trade by country and region - 05Outlook to 2031
Base, low and high scenarios with stated assumptions - 06Rules, policy and deadlines
Regulation and programmes that change demand - 07Drivers and barriers
What accelerates or slows adoption, by customer segment - 08Prices, costs and margins
Unit economics where public data allows - 09Competitive landscape
8 to 12 company profiles with recent moves - 10Opportunities and risks
For new entrants, suppliers and investors - 11Method and assumptions
How every figure was built
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Frequently asked questions
How big is the cross-border e-commerce market?
A world total for cross-border online sales was not available in the sources checked. Postal revenues worldwide, which include parcel delivery, were 563.4 billion USD in 2024 in purchasing power terms.
What happened when the US ended its de minimis exemption?
The US ended duty-free entry for parcels worth $800 or less from 29 August 2025. Postal goods volumes to the US fell 70% that month, and more than 40 countries stopped sending goods. A year later, 30 routes had reopened.
What is the EU de minimis change?
The EU removed its 150 EUR duty-free threshold and from July 2026 charges a 3 EUR duty per item. Postal tonnage into the EU fell 31% that month.
How are new customs rules affecting global parcel flows?
The typical postal corridor between two countries shrank by 10% on average in the latest year measured.
Which marketplaces rely on cross-border trade?
eBay had 135 million active buyers and 2.5 billion live listings across more than 190 markets at the end of 2025.
What could uncoordinated customs rules cost?
Slow, uncoordinated policy decisions could cost the world postal network 411 billion USD in total over 2026 to 2030.
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