Source: Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute
Why this market is moving now
- The 25C credit, worth up to $2,000 a year for heat pumps, applied only to improvements made through 31 December 2025.
- Heat pump shipments fell 11.6% in 2025 and central air conditioner shipments fell 26.2%, a weak base for 2026.
- Carrier reported residential volumes down 38% in its Americas segment in Q4 2025, citing weaker residential end-markets and distributor destocking.
Key figures
Each figure names the source it came from. Open the source list below to read the quoted line.
| Figure | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| US air-source heat pump shipments were 3,644,596 units in 2025, down 11.6% from 2024. | 3,644,596 units | 2025 | Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute |
| US air-source heat pump shipments were 4,122,004 units in 2024. | 4,122,004 units | 2024 | Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute |
| US gas warm air furnace shipments rose 4.1% to 3,247,426 units in 2025. | 3,247,426 units | 2025 | Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute |
| US central air conditioner shipments fell 26.2% to 4,104,933 units in 2025. | 4,104,933 units | 2025 | Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute |
| Combined US central air conditioner and air-source heat pump shipments fell 20.0% to 7,749,529 units in 2025. | 7,749,529 units | 2025 | Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute |
| US air-source heat pump shipments were 219,529 units in December 2025, down 2.4% from December 2024. | 219,529 units | 2025 | Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute |
| The federal energy efficient home improvement credit (25C) covered improvements made through 31 December 2025. | 2025-12-31 end date | 2025 | Internal Revenue Service |
| The 25C credit was capped at $2,000 per year for qualified heat pumps, water heaters, biomass stoves or biomass boilers. | 2,000 USD per year | 2025 | Internal Revenue Service |
| Carrier's US-focused Climate Solutions Americas segment reported residential volumes down 38% in the fourth quarter of 2025. | 38 % decline | 2025 | Carrier Global Corporation |
| Lennox's Home Comfort Solutions (residential) segment revenue was $3.3 billion in 2025, down 7%. | 3.3 USD billion | 2025 | Lennox International Inc. |
Sources and method
The figures on this page come from the public sources listed below. Read how we work.
- Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute: AHRI Releases December 2025 U.S. Heating and Cooling Equipment Shipment Data (2026-02-13)
Quoted lines
- Figure 1
The year-to-date total for heat pump shipments decreased -11.6 percent, to 3,644,596, compared to 4,122,004 units shipped during the same period in 2024.
- Figure 2
compared to 4,122,004 units shipped during the same period in 2024.
- Figure 3
Year-to-date U.S. shipments of gas warm air furnaces increased +4.1 percent, to 3,247,426 units
- Figure 4
Year-to-date shipments of central air conditioners decreased -26.2 percent, to 4,104,933 units
- Figure 5
Year-to-date combined shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps decreased -20.0 percent, to 7,749,529
- Figure 6
U.S. shipments of air-source heat pumps decreased -2.4 percent, to 219,529 units
- Figure 1
- Internal Revenue Service: Energy Efficient Home Improvement Credit (2026-04-28)
Quoted lines
- Figure 7
You can claim the credit for improvements made through December 31, 2025.
- Figure 8
$2,000 per year for qualified heat pumps, water heaters, biomass stoves or biomass boilers
- Figure 7
- Carrier Global Corporation: Carrier Reports 2025 Results and Announces 2026 Outlook (2026-02-05)
Quoted lines
- Figure 9
lower volumes in Residential, down 38%, and Light Commercial down 20%
- Figure 9
- Lennox International Inc.: Lennox Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results (2026-01-28)
Quoted lines
- Figure 10
Business segment revenue was $3.3 billion, down 7%.
- Figure 10
Companies to watch
Carrier
Reported residential volumes down 38% in its Climate Solutions Americas segment in Q4 2025.
Trane Technologies
Its Americas segment covers residential heating and cooling; the CEO cited challenging markets in residential in the Q4 2025 release (https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1466258/000162828026003953/exhibit991-q42025earningsr.htm).
Lennox International
Residential Home Comfort Solutions segment revenue was $3.3 billion in 2025, down 7%.
What the full report covers
- 01Executive summary
The answer in one page: size, direction and what moves it - 02Market definition and scope
What is in and out of the United States market - 03Market size, 2021 to 2025
Historical series and growth rates - 04Outlook to 2031
Base, low and high scenarios with stated assumptions - 05Rules, policy and deadlines
Regulation and programmes that change demand - 06Drivers and barriers
What accelerates or slows adoption, by customer segment - 07Prices, costs and margins
Unit economics where public data allows - 08Competitive landscape
8 to 12 company profiles with recent moves - 09Opportunities and risks
For new entrants, suppliers and investors - 10Method and sources
Every assumption and source, listed
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Frequently asked questions
How many heat pumps were sold in the US in 2025?
AHRI reports manufacturers shipped 3,644,596 air-source heat pumps in 2025, down 11.6% from 4,122,004 in 2024.
Do heat pumps outsell gas furnaces in the US?
In 2025, AHRI data show 3,644,596 heat pump shipments against 3,247,426 gas furnace shipments. Furnace shipments rose 4.1% while heat pumps fell 11.6%.
Is the federal heat pump tax credit still available?
The IRS says the 25C credit covered improvements made through 31 December 2025. It paid up to $2,000 a year for qualified heat pumps.
Did air conditioner shipments fall too?
Yes. AHRI reports central air conditioner shipments fell 26.2% to 4,104,933 units in 2025, and combined AC and heat pump shipments fell 20.0%.
How did the main manufacturers fare?
Carrier reported residential volumes down 38% in its Americas segment in Q4 2025. Trane Technologies' CEO cited challenging residential markets in its Q4 2025 release.
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