Why this market is moving now
- From 1 January 2026 the maximum 45Z credit is $1.00 per gallon for all fuels, down from $1.75 for SAF.
- Treasury published proposed 45Z rules on 4 February 2026; the credit applies to fuel sold through 31 December 2029.
- SAF capacity grew from about 2,000 barrels per day at the start of 2024 to around 30,000 in 2025.
Key figures
Each figure names the source it came from. Open the source list below to read the quoted line.
| Figure | Value | Year | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| EIA estimated US SAF production capacity at around 30,000 barrels per day in May 2025. | 30,000 barrels per day | 2025 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| US SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 barrels per day at the beginning of 2024. | 2,000 barrels per day | 2024 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| US production of 'other biofuels', a category that includes SAF, rose 30% in February 2025 to 44,000 barrels per day. | 44,000 barrels per day (other biofuels incl. SAF) | 2025 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| EIA's October 2026 outlook forecasts US 'other biofuel' production (which includes SAF) of 0.04 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2026 and 0.05 million in 2027. | 0.04 million barrels per day in 2026 (other biofuels incl. SAF) | 2026 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| EIA's October 2026 outlook forecasts US renewable diesel production of 0.23 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.29 million in 2027, up from 0.19 million in 2025. | 0.23 million barrels per day in 2026 (renewable diesel) | 2026 | U.S. Energy Information Administration |
| The section 45Z clean fuel credit applies to fuel produced domestically after 31 December 2024 and sold by 31 December 2029. | 2029 last year of sale eligible for the 45Z credit | 2029 | Federal Register / U.S. Treasury and IRS |
| For fuel produced on or before 31 December 2025, the maximum 45Z credit was $1.75 per gallon for SAF. | 1.75 USD per gallon maximum credit for SAF (through 2025) | 2025 | Federal Register / U.S. Treasury and IRS |
| For fuel produced after 31 December 2025, the maximum 45Z credit is $1.00 per gallon, with no separate higher amount for SAF. | 1.00 USD per gallon maximum credit (from 2026) | 2026 | Federal Register / U.S. Treasury and IRS |
Sources and method
The figures on this page come from the public sources listed below. Read how we work.
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: U.S. sustainable aviation fuel production takes off as new capacity comes online (2025-05-06)
Quoted lines
- Figure 1
With SAF production capacity now around 30,000 b/d and growing in 2025
- Figure 2
At the beginning of 2024, U.S. SAF production capacity was only around 2,000 barrels per day (b/d).
- Figure 3
increased another 30% in February to 44,000 b/d.
- Figure 1
- U.S. Energy Information Administration: Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (Table 4d) (2026-10-06)
Quoted lines
- Figure 4
Other biofuel production (a) ... 0.04 0.04 0.05
- Figure 5
Renewable diesel production ... 0.19 0.23 0.29
- Figure 4
- Federal Register / U.S. Treasury and IRS: Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit (proposed rule) (2026-02-04)
Quoted lines
- Figure 6
clean transportation fuel produced domestically after December 31, 2024, and sold by December 31, 2029.
- Figure 7
$1.75 for SAF transportation fuel; or
- Figure 8
(B) For transportation fuel produced after December 31, 2025, $1.00.
- Figure 6
What the full report covers
- 01Executive summary
The answer in one page: size, direction and what moves it - 02Market definition and scope
What is in and out of the United States market - 03Market size, 2021 to 2025
Historical series and growth rates - 04Outlook to 2031
Base, low and high scenarios with stated assumptions - 05Rules, policy and deadlines
Regulation and programmes that change demand - 06Drivers and barriers
What accelerates or slows adoption, by customer segment - 07Prices, costs and margins
Unit economics where public data allows - 08Competitive landscape
8 to 12 company profiles with recent moves - 09Opportunities and risks
For new entrants, suppliers and investors - 10Method and sources
Every assumption and source, listed
Included with the full report
- PDF report, 40 to 60 pages
- Excel data pack
- Ready-to-use charts
- Method note and assumptions
- Written to order in 5 working days
Frequently asked questions
How much SAF can the US produce?
EIA estimated US SAF production capacity at around 30,000 barrels per day in May 2025, up from about 2,000 at the start of 2024.
How much SAF does the US actually produce?
EIA does not publish SAF output alone. Its 'other biofuels' category, which includes SAF, hit 44,000 barrels per day in February 2025 and is forecast at 0.04 million in 2026.
What is the 45Z credit for SAF?
For fuel produced after 31 December 2025 the maximum 45Z credit is $1.00 per gallon. For SAF produced through 2025 it could reach $1.75.
How long does the 45Z credit last?
It applies to fuel produced domestically after 31 December 2024 and sold by 31 December 2029, according to Treasury's proposed rule.
What is EIA forecasting for renewable diesel?
EIA's October 2026 outlook shows renewable diesel production of 0.23 million barrels per day in 2026 and 0.29 million in 2027.
Ask about this market
Ask about a figure, its source, a definition or the editions. Answers use only what is published on this page and the rest of the site, and link to the original source.
- Where does the 30,000 figure for the US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market come from?
- How big is the US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market?
- Why is the US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market moving now?
- How current is the US Sustainable Aviation Fuel Market data?
Answers come from the figures published on this site. Check the linked sources before relying on a number.
Free sample
Get a free sample of this report
We send the table of contents, two sample chapters and the method note, usually within one working day. You owe us nothing for asking.
- Full table of contents
- Two sample chapters
- Method note and data outline